11 Comments
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a1phapapa's avatar

Before anyone seriously considers this:

Risks:

1. This company is on an official US sanctions list due to the forced labour issue

2. Regions like EU are regulating imports by carbon intensity. Daqo's coal produced polysilicon will be amongst the least competitive of the Chinese producers.

3. Potential forced delisting of Chinese ADRs by US government is always on the cards.

4. One of the most unbalanced industries in China, which is saying something, with nothing to suggest supply imbalance doesn't return after 5 years.

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Taro Sakamoto's avatar

Thanks for the comment:

(1) The space was politicised by Biden given the trade war. There was no evidence whatsoever. Just look at the US playbook, Trump is now doing the same for copper, lithium, steel etc. to protect domestic manufacturing because the US can’t compete at all

(2) Daqo sells to domestic wafer manufacturers/downstream solar value chain and 0% of production is exported directly

(3) This is a risk for all Chinese ADRs, but if you believe US does it, there will be war. Anyways, management said they will do a secondary listing should such a scenario be realised

(4) In cyclical industries, you buy when things are horrible and sell when things get better. I am not holding this for 10 years

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Duh wun's avatar

Nice rebuttals. Reminds me of Sakamoto’s fight with that dude with those ricocheting ball bombs.

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Taro Sakamoto's avatar

Gosh YES! U know about the slam dunk resemblance too, can’t wait for anime to catchup some epic fight scenes there :D and no I have not looked at the warrants, they have warrants??

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Duh wun's avatar

Re warrants: all kinds of expirations from July 2025 to August 2026 and multiple strikes all the way down from $13 to $35 and everything in between. Almost like an option chain. Never seen anything like that, so was wondering if it was just some hallucination on IBKR. Check it out if you have time.

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Taro Sakamoto's avatar

You made my day, man of culture ;D

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Duh wun's avatar

lol, feel the same about you. Stumbled across the anime thinking the main character was the coach from the old Slam Dunk anime from my childhood, and realized they were different characters. Stayed for the zany story.

Have you looked at any of the warrants? So many strikes and expirations, wondering what happened there.

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Calvin Blissett's avatar

Unaudited results?

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Friso Van De Stadt's avatar

Thanks for unpacking this - I like the structure and writing. Used it for a video summary actually: https://app.symvol.io/videos/daqo-new-energy-dq-1e2c

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Taro Sakamoto's avatar

😂 what in the world is that app? It has got a good narrative voice tho!

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Friso Van De Stadt's avatar

haha thanks! happy to also share the mp4 :)

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