Ape with Crayons - May 2025

Monthly Market Pulse through the Charts

Jun 08, 2025

What are the charts telling us this month?

Technicals tell a story, an ape who dismisses charting as mumbo jumbo is the clown in the house
- Taro Sakamoto

Parameters: 10-Yr Weekly Charts  
-> 50 Week-Moving Average (Orange)  
-> 200 Week-Moving Average (Blue)  
-> RSI (Top Panel), MACD (Middle Panel), Stochastic RSI (Bottom Panel)  
-> Valuation Bands (Average, +-1&2 Standard Deviation)

Sentiment and market breadth are improving with positioning also bullish, tariffs are a thing of yesteryear it seems…

US Exceptionalism - Dollar has languished but the rest of the ‘US exceptionalism’ trade have either bounced off hard or are still respecting long-term support

DXY remains under 100
Mag 7 reclaimed 50WMA
US/World, Tech/World and Semiconductors respecting long-term support (200WMA) thus far

EMs in general continue to make new lows vs DMs…

But looking at the country relatives, China, South Africa and ASEAN are looking pretty strong…

Brazil seems to be taking longer to base out of the EMs, but the set-up for next year looks to be very interesting…

Gold/S&P could be setting up for an impulse move/blow-off short term before consolidating for awhile…

Again, a good short-term point to trim if you are looking for one
But longer-term structural reserve asset share gain thesis + monetary inflation hedge is only in the 3rd inning in my opinion…

I think we are looking at the early innings of the second wave of inflation in industrial related commodities here…

Structurally, 13-years of underinvestment in mining and cost inflation have pushed up cost curves across the board
Weakening USD as tailwind from a previous 10-yr headwind