Ape with Crayons - March 2025

Monthly Market Pulse through the Charts

Apr 02, 2025

What are the charts telling us this month?

Technicals tell a story, an ape who dismisses charting as mumbo jumbo is the clown in the house
- Taro Sakamoto

Parameters: 10-Yr Weekly Charts
-> 50 Week-Moving Average (Orange)
-> 200 Week-Moving Average (Blue)
-> RSI (Top Panel), MACD (Middle Panel), Stochastic RSI (Bottom Panel)
-> Valuation Bands (Average, +-1&2 Standard Deviation)

The Magnificent 7 are no longer as magnificent as before…and there’s still a long way down…

Semiconductors: So much for exponential demand from AI & Robotics, with it goes the AI trade and its many derivatives…

A real loss of momentum for AI, growth & tech, but sentiment has also been completely flushed out → minimally a tradable low here in my view (1-2 months?), longer term market structure unclear…all depends on how much Trump, Bessent & the Fed are willing to tolerate pain

Don’t be hasty with longs until policymakers start panicking… ALWAYS REMEMBER “markets stop panicking when policymakers panic”

Bonds catching a bid, Stocks/Bonds at a critical juncture, rolling over could be a definitive signal for a longer term risk-off environment

Funnily enough, despite all the growth scare/slowdown narrative, commodities are showing good relative strength → confirmation of stagflation?

Tariffs are likely inflationary on the margin…(second order impact) tariff uncertainty causes businesses to invest less = supply curtailment = structural support for prices?

Doctor Copper seems to agree on Stagflation…

Stagflation + structural supply underinvestment > recession fears

Did anyone notice the ferocious Gold bull market? Closing in on Covid highs relative to S&P and no signs of stopping anytime soon…

A generation has passed since the last precious metals bull market, allocators & investors alike have forgotten how to dream again…collective amnesia increases the probability of extremes (applies for both bull/bear regimes)